A Dove and a Holiday Rally

Nothing like coming in hot to 2015.  Mid-December Federal Open Market Committee comments about monetary policy included the word “patient,” which caused a stir akin to that created by Santa on the rooftop.  The Leading Economic Indicators for the U.S. came in at +0.6% for November, further solidifying their upward march.  Investors of all faiths found peace with this, and the equity markets rocketed upwards like a sleigh with launchers.

Entering the last week of trading for the year, the major areas of the markets rang in joyous annual total return figures.  Major indices and exchanges delivered holiday cheer across the board with solid double-digit returns.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average gave investors +11.47%, the Standard & Poors 500 +15.3%, and NASDAQ +15.09%.  Sector winners were topped by Utilities and Healthcare, with both posting total return figures over 30% for the year.  Other sectors followed suit.  The only naughty sector for equity investors was Energy, which lost as much as 10-20% depending on capitalization.  The year also saw differentiation by style, as growth orientation outpaced value for 2014 by about 3%.

Now off to celebrate a Happy New Year and a fabulous 2015!

Source: Morningstar

© 2014-2015 Pawleys Capital Management, LLC. All rights reserved.

Dude, Boost your Portfolio Performance!

If everyone is riding the same wave, why do some surfers go faster than others?  Differences in equipment, physical fitness, and skill can give the boost surfers need to gain speed.  Small advantages can add up quickly.  Similarly, portfolio managers in the equity markets all face a level-playing field.  In the U.S. alone, there are almost 7,000 publically traded companies.  Intuitively, equity managers who can consistently identify a handful of above average stocks and go long while shorting a few mediocre stocks should be able to consistently beat the market.  So why do so many funds underperform their benchmarks?  We feel it is important to keep the big picture in mind, or you might miss catching the wave altogether.  Here are three high-level areas for potential performance advantages:

  1. Use of structure or systemized processes – a short-term hot streak can end quickly without processes to identify the right securities and properly timing entry and exit points for those positions.
  2. Evaluate quality accurately – managers can be blindsided if they are not consistently evaluating portfolio holdings from a purely objective eye; long positions can go south or short positions can jump unexpectedly.
  3. Keep Fees Low – excessive trading commissions and wide bid/ask pricing spreads can chisel away at portfolios and quickly cause good managers to underperform.

Portfolio managers all face the same economic and market conditions.  Pawleys Capital Management focuses on building portfolios that will perform well in a myriad of environments.  Our processes are systematic, we work hard to properly assess the quality of holdings, and we keep costs low.  Surf’s up!

© 2014-2015 Pawleys Capital Management, LLC. All rights reserved.

Kiawah Marathon Lessons for Investors – Bobcat Style

Last night, there were two friendly and playful bobcats in my dreams.  They have been on my mind, because tomorrow runners who complete the Kiawah full or half marathon will receive medals adorned with bobcats.  Last year, I was well prepared for the race and decided to start out at a blistering (for me) 8:30 minute mile for as long as I could, and then finish the last part at a slower pace.  You would think that after 50 or so 1/2 marathons I would know better.  After 8 miles of this ridiculous strategy, I not only had to slow my pace, but ended up having to walk several times during the last 5 miles.

Kiawah Bobcat

This year I will be patient.  Last December, I bought shares of Sapient in the Pawleys Growth Fund for my investors.  Through Halloween of this year, which happened to fall on a Friday, the total return for the position was exactly zero.  Not a good way to stay ahead of benchmark returns.   The underlying criteria I use, however, had not changed for the stock.  Thankfully I remained patient with the holding.  Over that weekend, news started swirling that there might be a French company seeking to purchase SAPE.  The announcement for the tender was released the following Monday, with a cash offer of $25/share, turning my 0% into a +44%.

Tomorrow I will be patient when I start the 13.1 miles on Kiawah Island.  It will make for a much more enjoyable day, and I will be much happier when I see the bobcats on the medals at the finish line.

Bobcats

© 2014-2105 Pawleys Investment Advisors, LLC. All rights reserved