Five Portfolio Construction Basics from Pawleys

Here are five quick portfolio construction basics from Pawleys Investment Advisors that can really supercharge your performance results:

Focus on Quality – highly rated bonds, stock of companies with little debt and consistent earnings, funds with solid long-term track records.

Have a Plan – avoid making random changes – it will almost always hurt your return and add to portfolio volatility.

Rebalance – sell low quality or over-weighted holdings when you need to raise cash, buy high quality investments in under-weighted areas when adding cash, and review at least annually.

Add Structure – avoid being a “collector” of various investments – instead choose an asset allocation model and build a well-diversified portfolio of investment that complement each other and work well together.

Enjoy the Process – have fun and don’t let hyped-up news stories about the economy and stock market cause you to question your well-laid plans .

© 2014 Pawleys Investment Advisors, LLC. All rights reserved.

March Madness – Survival of the Fittest

Investing is a competitive arena where the fittest not only survive, but thrive.  The NCAA basketball tournament brackets were released Sunday and the playoffs start today – the men’s and women’s teams are ranked 1-16 in 4 regions respectively.  In the stock markets, there is always someone in first place and someone in last place at the end of the trading day.  On April 8&9, those 64 teams will have been reduced down to one winner each.  On any given day, you can rank the daily returns of each stock within a given index.  Investing is not a zero-sum game like most gambling or trading of options or futures contracts.  Wealth can grow within the stock market, but score is still kept on a relative basis.  If you evaluate a group of investors or mutual fund managers, someone always ends up in first place, either making the most money in the up market, or losing the least in the down market.  There is also always someone in last place, and everyone else who falls in between.  In a world of buyers and sellers, there are 2 sides to the trade, and being on the right side at the right time is critical for success.  People invest for one reason: to make more money.

Each investor has a limited number of dollars to put to work, so it is critical to develop a selection strategy that will single out the best performers within a given asset class.  For everyone who makes money, generally there is someone losing (unfortunately it is often the individual investor – look at how many people sold their stocks and funds at the bottom of the market in 2009 locking in losses, sat on the sidelines in cash, and missed the recent 100% returns!).  America was born on capitalism, free-markets and competition.  Stocks, bonds and derivatives are merely tools for the transfer of assets, obligations and currencies.  Aside from our health and physical well-being or spiritual state, our financial condition is often the most significant driver of our quality of life.  Most people do not need gobs of money to effectively care for their families, but after the turmoil of the markets over the past two decades, I have seen families shattered and emotionally devastated by a few wrong moves.  Lack of knowledge can cause us to be on the wrong side of the trade at the wrong time.  An objective strategy, discipline, and a focus on quality investments can put the odds in your favor.  Many NCAA teams focus on fundamentals and stick to basic strategies, and just wait for their opponent to slip up.  That consistency often separates the winners from those who fail to advance.  And always beware the bracket-busters – which is why diversification is critical for even the highest quality portfolio.

© 2012-2013 Pawleys Investment Advisors, LLC.  All rights reserved.

Beware Rising Interest Rates

As of March of 2012, the 10 year U.S. Treasury yielded 2.35%, and pundits said rates could not go lower – they did.  Afraid of the stock market plummet that coincided with the economic downturn, investors have fled to the safety of fixed income investments.  Following the recession of 2008-2009, investors poured over $1 trillion over a few short years into bond funds.  In the meantime, the S&P 500 has more than doubled in value, and those investors have missed out on historical investment gains.  There is a saying that while history may not exactly repeat itself, it definitely rhymes.  I caution against “reaching for yield.”  Longer term bond funds with below average quality will face downward pressure in a rising interest rate environment as new bond issues become more attractive than the older, seasoned bonds held by funds.  During 2013, long term U.S. bonds lost -9.92% as interest rates started to rise.

Launched in 1973,  the Vanguard Long Term Investment Grade Bond Fund is the oldest Vanguard bond fund.  When the Fed started raising short-term interest rates in 1993-1994, the fund plummeted over 17%.
VWESX

VWESX November 1993 through December 1994 – Yahoo! Finance

The time period from October, 1993 to November, 1994 was one of the most difficult times for bond funds.  Spoiled by the high rates of the 1980’s, investors sought alternatives to low rate bank deposits, CD’s and money markets.  Money poured into bond mutual funds in the months preceding this time period.  When rates started to rise, short-term funds and those funds that invested in lower quality securities lost significant amounts of money.  Fast-forward to today – interest rates have already started to rise, so it is VERY important to review bond mutual fund holdings for duration and average credit quality.  When rates rise, in general, the most volatile bonds are those with the longest maturities, deepest discount prices (such as zero-coupon bonds) and low credit ratings, so these are areas that investors should consider avoiding.  As always, review your overall asset allocation percentages and be sure you have a written plan for your financial goals.

By focusing on short-intermediate term high-quality bond funds and ladders of highly rated individual tax-free municipal bonds, investors can mitigate the downward pricing pressure created by a rising interest rate environment.  Keep your “safe” money safe.

© 2014 Pawleys Investment Advisors, LLC. All rights reserved.